Western involvement in Libyan revolt

The major cause for the delay by the Western powers in determining their role in the Libyan revolt is the attempt to reconcile values with national interest and to reconcile short term tactics with long term strategy. In the short term, humanitarian imperatives caused by the Libyan regime’s willingness to use the military against civilians in rebel strongholds argues for immediate intervention. Once the regime’s military has entered the rebel cities there is nothing the West can do to prevent a slaughter short of a large military combat presence on the ground which is unacceptable. In the long term, the reluctance to support the rebels is based on not knowing whose interests the rebels represent or what tactics will lead to an end position that does not involve a bloody civil war or a divided country.

One option would be to proceed as follows;

1. The west would adopt a sanctuary zone concept with the zones surrounded by demilitarized zones say of 20 miles. Any regime forces entering the sanctuaries and/or attacking the sanctuaries would be destroyed by the Western powers. Any rebels leaving the sanctuary to go on the offensive would do so without any Western support.


2. A quarantine would be maintained that would prevent the current Libyan regime from importing any weapons or ordinance and Libyan assets would continue to be frozen. It would be helpful of the Algerian border and the southern borders could be monitored to prevent any imports to the Libyan regime of weapons and troops from these areas.


3. The rebel area would be provisionally recognized as a separate state entity apart from the current Libyan regime.


4. The Saudis would provide technical support to run the oil and gas industry and the Saudis would handle the sale of any oil and gas available for export. The Saudis alone would determine price and customer.


5. The French would provide administrative support, account for and dispense funds received from the sale of the oil to existing employees of state owned utilities and health and safety services.


6. The rebels would have a defined period of time, say 3 months, to adopt the core of a constitution, the framework for government and to elect representatives to the government. The Turks or Egyptians might take the lead in this effort.


7. All costs for infrastructure repairs, operation of services and cost for contractors assisting with the elections, formation of core government structure, etc. would be paid for by Libyan oil revenues.


8. If the Libyan government, government representatives and core constitution were acceptable to the western governments then the process to formally recognize the new government as the sole representative of Libya would be rushed to conclusion in the UN.


9. No military aid including weapons, ordinance or training would be provided until the new Libyan government was formally recognized.