Egypt - What Comes Next

I think it likely that Egypt will follow the road that Turkey followed in establishing a secular government. The West and the protesters want a democracy established in Egypt, Mubarak will not remain nor will his son be permitted to take the reins of government and a democratic election under the current rules would likely see the the Muslim Brotherhood gaining more influence than the Egyptian Army and large segments of the Egyptian population not to mention the West would tolerate.

Consequently, in the next 10 days I expect that Mubarak will leave Egypt, the military will take command in a caretaker role and will insist on a new secular constitution being developed after which elections will be held. Much like Turkey, the military will be given a position in government with the explicit objective of ensuring that a secular state is maintained.